Behind the apparent standstill, the sustainable transition is moving faster than ever

Who has followed the news on climate and sustainability this year cannot escape the impression that the green movement has taken a big hit. Are we actually back to square one, or is the slide down not so bad?

It is very unlikely that the Netherlands will meet the 2030 climate target. That was the conclusion reached by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency in September in a new report. Admittedly, that goal seemed further out of reach in previous years as well. But at less than 5 percent, the chances of meeting the targets have now become virtually nil.

The failure to meet the target is not only because the previous administration has been scraping existing sustainability measures in recent years. But it hasn't helped. Minister Hermans promised a CO2 reduction of 10 to 12 megatons in her climate plan presented in April, but according to PBL, in practice it is less than half. In part this is because the proposed measures have not yet been sufficiently elaborated or implementation will take longer. Think of the much-needed expansion of the energy network or increased deployment of CO2 storage in the North Sea.

In addition, this year the cabinet has also implemented, toned down or adjusted measures that directly cause the climate goals to move further out of sight. The ambition for offshore wind capacity by 2030 was downgraded from 12 to 10 gigawatts; the plastic tax was shelved; the SDE++ subsidy was given a haircut, the CO2-levy for heavy industry was scrapped; the subsidy for the purchase of an electric car disappeared and the obligation to install a (hybrid) heat pump when replacing the central heating boiler from 2026 onwards was withdrawn.

Winds in Europe

Not only domestically, but also in Europe the chair legs of sustainability are being cut. Although the goal of 90 percent fewer emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 still stands, it has been given all sorts of goat trails. Countries are allowed to offset some of their emissions outside the EU, and an expansion of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS II) is delayed from 2027 to 2028. In addition, the 2040 target will be reassessed every two years to see if European competitiveness is not hit too hard.

Sustainability reporting obligations (CSRD) and the antiroad watch law (CSDDD) were also in the corner where the blows hit. To ease the administration burden on companies, 2025 and 2026 do not yet require reporting on generally sizable scope 3 emissions.

And the CSDDD, which requires companies to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains, will only apply to those companies with 5,000 employees and €1.5 billion in turnover. That means far fewer companies have to report than previously, when the bar was set at 1,000 employees and 450 million euros in turnover.